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The the Winner's Curse

February 8, 2019

What is the the winner's curse?

Imagine that, at the beginning of the class, a teacher produces a jar full of coins and announces that he is auctioning. Students can write an offer, explains, and the highest bidder wins the contents of the vial in exchange for your offer. After everyone has written their bids, the professor query to the class to find out how to bid. Bob turns out to be the high bidder, to $us.- 45. "Congratulations, Bob, you just win all the coins in the jar!" The teacher says. "How do you feel?" "Lousy," says Bob, even before listening to how much money it contains.

The the winner's curse: Scenarios of negotiation in competitive bidding

This simple game is a classic illustration of the phenomenon of the winner's curse in a competitive bid. The curse of the winner describes a common problem in the negotiation: the lack of an advanced understanding of this phenomenon, the party that wins an auction of a product of uncertain value with a good number of bidders usually pays more than it is actually worth the asset.

The auction permeate our world, from agreements, mergers and acquisitions and auctions of purchase, up to eBay. To avoid becoming the next victim of the curse of the winner, follow these three guidelines:

  • To analyze whether the asset has an element of common value. An asset of common value, such as a jar of coins, has the same value to all bidders. If so, bid with caution.
  • Evaluate your capabilities and compare them with those of other bidders.
  • Prior to each deal, pause to consider how you would feel if you won the auction.
Too many winners of auctions end up feeling cursed by his victories. And Bob had reason to feel bad. The bottle that won containing about $us.- 20 in coins. Remember that, in its next stage of negotiation of competitive bidding, winning is not always the best option, and the creation of value in the table of negotiation. Assess your BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) in a negotiation of competitive bidding in the same way that you would in a stage of negotiation regular: if your best alternative to win the auction is to not win the auction, then adjust your bids accordingly to avoid the "need to succeed" at all costs.

Tips on how to avoid the Winner's curse

First, determine the type of asset that is auctioning, that is to say, if it is an asset "value private" or an asset of "shared value". The assets 'value private" to offer a unique value to different bidders in function of their use individual of that asset. The assets of "common value" have the same value to all bidders, or, in other words, its utility for each actor "would provide the same value to all." If the asset is only an asset of value private, the winner does not need to worry about the "the winner's curse". Often, however, the asset is a hybrid of the two, forcing the bidder to assess which of the two values is more useful or important to her. In the second place, along with determining whether an asset is in a private or common value, the bidder smart must try to determine if you have an advantage over other bidders by using the asset. To quote Bruce Wasserstein, "I Think that is the dilemma of a winner, more of a curse: each time that you are the winner, you question why the other [bidders] not wanted." To overcome this obstacle is a matter of accurately assess its comparative advantage over other bidders in the use of an asset, or "knowledge, skills or resources that could contribute to an auction." Finally, plan for the future, taking into account the past. In other words, ask yourself if you can feel comfortable by making this offer, and what has brought you to this point in the auction. After determining if the asset is either private or of “shared value”, and to evaluate its comparative advantage relative to other providers, ask yourself how you will link these things to make your winning bid is effective and without regrets.